Crop harvested area, not yield, drives variability in crop production in Iran

Abstract Increasing population and a severe water crisis are imposing growing pressure on Iranian cropping systems to increase crop production meet the rising demand for food. Little is known about separate contribution of trends variability harvested area yield in severely drought-prone areas such as Iran. In this study we (a) quantify importance 12 most important annual crops under rainfed irrigated conditions (b) test how well can be explained by drought dynamics. We use remote sensing based land cover evapotranspiration products derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer extent cropland severity survey-based, crop-specific reports period 2001–2016 The intensity stress was estimated using ratio between actual potential evapotranspiration. found that specific predominantly area. Besides, contributed significantly more than yields, particularly (seven out nine crops). contrast, heavily subsidized wheat variability. Variability largely drought, particular arid regions south country. This highlights better proactive management stabilize yields sufficient food